Ergomed’s contribution to the PHIII Trial is up to $12M. Their CEO said in late 2015: “At this point in the clinical trial we have decided to increase our investment in the development of Multikine, as we believe that it holds the potential to treat head and neck cancer in a new way. Our potential returns from this agreement will increase in line with our investment.”
Ergomed stands to make up to 4X their investment, or $48M.
Does that sound like a lot? It Should.... I'll explain in the next section.
Market and Growth
Ergomed had 4 Co-Development Agreements where they share in the potential revenues with small biotechs, like CEL-SCI. At least 2 failed, and then they cancelled their "sharing" deals. To the best of our knowledge CVM is the only one left standing and the saving grace for Ergomed. A successful trial will be huge, not just financially, but prove to the market that despite all the obstacles, Ergomed was able to run a successful PHIII Trial.
Ergomed's 2018 Revenues were roughly $68M USD with an EBITDA of $2.9M USD. Yes, Just under $3M USD.
What do you think their EBITDA will look like when you drop $48M USD into their P & L? Almost all of this $48M USD will fall to the bottom line! Thus, their EBITDA will EXPLODE and will have a massive cash infusion to fund their growth without dilution.
So yes, this is big for Ergomed
A handful of Ergomed's employees are the ONLY people that have UNBLINDED data. Ergomed stands to benefit significantly from a successful trial as I noted above. Ergomed recently stated that they expect the trial to finish in the first half of 2019
While the CFO/COO/CEO may not have the Unblinded info, they have at least 2 things: 1) Analytical spreadsheets just like FOSCO's and 2) Anecdotal stories from the Trial.
They know how the trial is going in our opinion.
Now I need you to pay attention here.
In early April, Ergomed's stock was trading around 170GBP. Then news of the IDMC hit. This news coupled with the market believing Multikine is working has propelled the stock to a new 52 Week high of 319GBP. That's a 88% gain in 2 months!!! WHY?
But there is something even more telling than a 88% gain.
What's TELLING is that the Executive Chairman, CFO and COO have purchased over $1.2M USD of Ergomed's stock in the past few weeks. That's a shit load of stock!
While they are most likely blinded to the data, they likely are aware of various analysis and anecdotal information.
I suggest that these "Insiders" are trading on "Public Information". As noted, we have prepared our own statistical models using public information.
There would be nothing illegal for ANY company, such as CEL-SCI, to have their own statistical models based on public information.
I suspect Ergomed is doing the same analysis on public information. The Executive Chairman, CFO and COO are betting big on something!
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